Further QE expected in UK next month
POUND
The pound is trading flat against the Euro this morning having dropped yesterday on the back of weaker economic data and investors being more positive about the outlook for the euro zone. As I mentioned yesterday both manufacturing and industrial production data out earlier this weak knocked confidence in sterling and fuelled market expectation for the UK to slip back into a recession. Yesterday saw the BoE leave interest rates and quantitative easing on hold with a “no change” policy usually the case in the month of January, although expectations have been increased for the printing press to be started again in February to try and breathe more life into the bumbling economy. PPI input data out this morning was lower than expected showing a fall in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The recent support for the euro in the last 24 hours has highlighted the vulnerability of sterling and the prospects for the rate falling rapidly on the back of any renewed confidence in the region.
EURO
The Euro is trading stronger for once today, moving back into 1.28 against the USD and 1.19 against the pound. This move has been aided by investors growing less pessimistic on the euro zone debt crisis with confidence increasing over Spain and Italy making it through the next few months after Spain sold double its maximum targeted amount in debt sales yesterday. Italy is also looking to do the same today which could help the Euro further which has also been aided by President Mario Draghi being more upbeat, stating the bank’s flood of cheap 3-year loans was supporting morale across the region.
US DOLLAR
The USD is trading down against the euro this morning but has taken advantage of some sterling weakness in the foreign exchange markets. US data was slightly weaker than forecast yesterday providing some support from safe haven buying. US weekly jobless claims rose in the number of people claiming benefits to 399k from 375k and US retail sales numbers for December declined slightly. This afternoon sees the release of key consumer sentiment data in the US.
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